[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 29 10:31:17 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remains elevated. The present coronal
hole wind stream appers to be in gradual decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22233322
Darwin 6 21122312
Townsville 9 22223322
Learmonth 9 22133321
Camden 9 22133312
Canberra 8 22132322
Hobart 9 22233311
Casey(Ant) 12 3-333321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 24 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2324 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
30 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The present coronal hole wind stream continued a gradual
decline over the UT day. The geomagnetic field was unsettled
with isolated active to minor storm periods at high latitudes.
The low to mid latitude geomagnetic field remained at quiet to
unsettled levels. Expect similar conditions on day one, declining
to generally quiet conditions by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
30 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
31 Oct Fair-normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct -20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct -15 depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
30 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
31 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions
over the UT day. Intervals of spread-F conditions observed S
Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Disturbances possible S Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions
day one in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 89600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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