[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 31 10:27:59 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 OCTOBER - 02 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Oct: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Oct 01 Nov 02 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Oct: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 32211212
Darwin 6 22211312
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 7 32211312
Camden 5 22211212
Canberra 6 23211212
Hobart 8 32321212
Casey(Ant) 12 34322322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 43 (Unsettled)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 14 2012 2254
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled
01 Nov 5 Quiet
02 Nov 11 Quiet to unsettled with a possible isolated active
period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Oct Fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
01 Nov Normal Normal Normal
02 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Oct -16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during day with
depressions to 30% at other times.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Oct -10 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
01 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
02 Nov 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 25 was issued on 29 October
and is current for interval 30 October to 1 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:25%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Oct
Speed: 473 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 70200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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