[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 26 09:43:01 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A coronal hole 
positioned in the western solar hemisphere became geoeffective 
after 25/1000UT. 
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1038UT 
on 25 Oct. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      18   22244443
      Darwin              14   21143433
      Townsville          16   22244433
      Learmonth           24   21154553
      Camden              15   11144433
      Canberra            16   22134443
      Hobart              16   21234443
      Casey(Ant)          14   23333333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct    20    active 
27 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: A coronal hole wind stream onset occurred after 10UT. 
Geomagnetic conditions prior to the onset were quiet, becoming 
active at all latitudes after onset. Minor to major storm periods 
were observed at high latitudes. Solar wind speed is around 700 
km/s at the time of report issue. The Bz component of the IMF 
showed moderate fluctuations of +/- 15 nT for a few hours after 
onset, then settled to near neutral values. Expect active conditions 
for the next two days, with storm periods possible mainly at 
high latitudes. Activity should decline during day three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions at high latitudes 
next two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct   -13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct   -15    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
27 Oct     0    near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct    -5    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Widespread depressions observed around local dawn, especially
Equatorial/N Aus regions, recovering later in the day. Variable 
depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions, mainly local day. 
Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days in 
association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    47600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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