[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 25 08:58:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. A coronal hole
positioned in the western solar hemisphere is expected to become
geoeffective on day one.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 5 21122112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 21111211
Camden 3 10112111
Canberra 4 12112201
Hobart 3 11112111
Casey(Ant) 8 33321112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7 3321 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 20 active
26 Oct 20 active
27 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels throughout
the UT day. The high-latitude geomagnetic field was quiet to
unsettled. Conditions remained quiet at other latitudes. A coronal
hole wind stream onset is anticipated on day one, with active
conditions expected for the next three days. Storm periods
possible mainly at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions next three days
in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct 0 near predicted monthly values
27 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions,
mainly local day. Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions
next three days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 63300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list