[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 24 09:25:32 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day.
A coronal hole is now past central solar meridian and is expected
to become geoeffective by day two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 32232121
Darwin 6 31122112
Townsville 7 32222221
Learmonth 8 32222230
Camden 6 22232111
Canberra 7 31232121
Hobart 7 22232121
Casey(Ant) 10 32332131
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1100 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 12 Unsettled
25 Oct 20 active
26 Oct 20 active
COMMENT: Solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field was mainly
neutral with periods of mild southward bias. The high-latitude
geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active with isolated minor
storm intervals. The low to mid-latitude geomgnetic field was
quiet to unsettled. Conditions should remain mostly quiet on
day one. A high-speed coronal hole wind stream onset is anticipated
late day one to early day two. Geomagnetic conditions are then
expected to be active, with storm periods possible mainly at
high latitudes, for the remainder of the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
26 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions days two and
three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
26 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible at low to mid latitudes,
mainly local day. Disturbances possible at high latitudes days
two and three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 449 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 50800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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