[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 23 09:44:55 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 OCTOBER - 25 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Oct 24 Oct 25 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speed remained steady at around 450 km/s.
A coronal hole is now past central solar meridian and is expected
to become geoeffective late on day two.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Oct : A K
Australian Region 8 22211332
Darwin 6 22111322
Townsville 8 22211233
Learmonth 8 -2111333
Camden 6 12111322
Canberra 6 22200232
Hobart 6 12111322
Casey(Ant) 14 34321333
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 12 Unsettled
25 Oct 20 active
B
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions expected on day one with the
chance of unsettled intervals. A coronal hole wind stream is
anticipated late on day two with conditions becoming unsettled
to active days two and three. Storm periods likely at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Oct Normal Normal-Fair Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions days two and
three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Oct -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
25 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable depressions possible at low to mid latitudes,
mainly local day. Disturbances possible at high latitudes days
two and three in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Oct
Speed: 511 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 83800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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