[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 22 09:45:04 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 OCTOBER - 24 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Oct 23 Oct 24 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds continued to decline slowly over the
past 24 hours, to down below approximately 450 km/s. Solar wind
speeds are expected to continue decline slowly over the next
24 hours and remain low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Oct : A K
Australian Region 7 23222122
Darwin 5 22111122
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 23222222
Camden 5 12112122
Canberra 6 13122112
Hobart 6 13212122
Casey(Ant) 11 34322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12 4433 2321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Oct 6 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
24 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels are expected for the Australian
region for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
24 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 21 October
and is current for interval 22 October only. Significant depressions
were observed at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions
are expected at times for 22 October, otherwise mostly normal
conditions are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Oct
Speed: 642 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 168000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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