[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 21 09:51:03 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 OCTOBER - 23 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Oct 22 Oct 23 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds declined slowly over the past 24 hours,
down to approximately 580 km/s. Solar wind speeds are expected
to continue decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 23332221
Darwin 7 22232212
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 10 23233321
Camden 6 22232111
Canberra 11 33333211
Hobart 9 22333121
Casey(Ant) 14 34432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 15 3222 5333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 6 Quiet
23 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Unsettled to quiet levels were observed at all Australian
region stations during the past 24 hours, with active and minor
storm levels observed at high latitude stations. Mostly quiet
to unsettled levels are expected for the the Australian region
for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Oct -12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
23 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 20 was issued on 20 October
and is current for interval 21 October only. Mild depressions
were observed at times during the past 24 hours. Mild depressions
are again expected at times for 21 October, otherwise mostly
normal conditions are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Oct
Speed: 620 km/sec Density: 3.2 p/cc Temp: 263000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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