[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 20 09:48:09 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Oct: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds remained elevated over the past 24
hours, ranging from approximately 560 to 680 km/s due to a recurrent
coronal hole solar wind stream. Solar wind speeds are expected
to decline slowly over the next 24-48 hours.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Oct : A K
Australian Region 16 32235332
Darwin 14 32235222
Townsville 15 22235332
Learmonth 16 32235332
Camden 13 22225232
Canberra 15 23225332
Hobart 14 23225322
Casey(Ant) 17 4--43233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 6 (Quiet)
Camden 64 (Active)
Canberra 71 (Active)
Hobart 84 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 10 1233 2133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
21 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: An isolated minor storm was observed 12-15UT at all
Australian region stations as the result of a coronal hole solar
wind stream. Storm levels were observed at high latitude stations
during the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the the Australian region for the next 24-48 hours.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Oct -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Oct -10 depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
21 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
22 Oct -5 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 19 was issued on 19 October
and is current for interval 20 October only. Significant depressions
were observed at times during the past 24 hours primarily for
Australian/Equatorial regions. Significant depressions are again
expected at times for Australian/Equatorial regions for 20 October,
otherwise mostly normal conditions are expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Oct
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 96800 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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