[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 27 09:40:37 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    67/0               67/0               67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The present 
coronal hole wind stream is expected to persist for day one, 
gradually declining days two and three. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Active. 

Estimated Indices 26 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region      13   33333322
      Darwin               8   22222322
      Townsville          13   33333322
      Learmonth           13   32333332
      Camden              11   23323322
      Canberra            11   23323322
      Hobart              11   23333321
      Casey(Ant)          17   4--333-3
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Camden              81   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            51   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              98   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             20   1102 3653     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct    15    Unsettled to Active 
28 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
29 Oct    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined steadily but still remains 
elevated at 600 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated 
+/-5nT with no sustained periods of negative bias. The resultant 
geomagnetic field was active at high latitudes with minor to 
major storm intervals. The low to mid latitude geomagnetic field 
remained at mostly unsettled levels. Expect similar conditions 
on day one, declining to mostly unsettled days two and three. 
An auto-generated Forbush Decrease Alert from Mawson Station 
Cosmic Ray data appears to be an instrumental anomaly. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions at high latitudes 
next two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct   -23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct   -10    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct    -5    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct    -5    depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed Equatorial/N/S Aus 
regions at times over the UT day. Strong sporadic-E conditions 
observed at times Equatorial/N Aus regions, but not persisting. 
Intervals of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions. 
Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Disturbances 
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days in association 
with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 439 km/sec  Density:    3.7 p/cc  Temp:    58900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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