[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 27 09:40:37 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 67/0 67/0 67/0
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. The present
coronal hole wind stream is expected to persist for day one,
gradually declining days two and three.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet to Active.
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 13 33333322
Darwin 8 22222322
Townsville 13 33333322
Learmonth 13 32333332
Camden 11 23323322
Canberra 11 23323322
Hobart 11 23333321
Casey(Ant) 17 4--333-3
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Camden 81 (Minor storm)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Hobart 98 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 20 1102 3653
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
28 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind velocity declined steadily but still remains
elevated at 600 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
+/-5nT with no sustained periods of negative bias. The resultant
geomagnetic field was active at high latitudes with minor to
major storm intervals. The low to mid latitude geomagnetic field
remained at mostly unsettled levels. Expect similar conditions
on day one, declining to mostly unsettled days two and three.
An auto-generated Forbush Decrease Alert from Mawson Station
Cosmic Ray data appears to be an instrumental anomaly.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Fair-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbances in HF conditions at high latitudes
next two days in association with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct -23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct -10 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
28 Oct -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
29 Oct -5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Significant depressions observed Equatorial/N/S Aus
regions at times over the UT day. Strong sporadic-E conditions
observed at times Equatorial/N Aus regions, but not persisting.
Intervals of spread-F conditions observed S Aus/Antarctic regions.
Variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Disturbances
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions next two days in association
with elevated geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 58900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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