[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 21 10:03:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 21 NOVEMBER - 23 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 Nov 22 Nov 23 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity is
very low. A recurrent coronal hole moved into geoeffective position
late on 19 Nov raising solar wind speeds and Interplanetary Magnetic
Field (IMF) fluctuations. A co-rotating interaction region on
the leading edge of the coronal hole contained strongly southwards
IMF resulting in IMF Bz values of up to -18nT (at 0930UT) and
sustained southwards IMF for ~13 hours (06-19UT). Expect solar
wind speed to increase further over the next day as we move into
the main part of the coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Nov: Unsettled with
isolated Major Storm period.
Estimated Indices 20 Nov : A K
Australian Region 25 33346432
Darwin 19 33245422
Townsville 25 33346432
Learmonth 31 33356533
Camden 24 23346432
Canberra 24 23246433
Hobart 24 23346432
Casey(Ant) 24 44454323
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 0123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 Nov 16 Unsettled to active
22 Nov 12 Unsettled
23 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled over the
UT day due to the combined effects of a coronal hole and a Co-rotating
Interaction Region (CIR) on its leading edge. The CIR contained
strongly southward Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) resulting
in a period of Major Storm conditions 0900-1500 UT. Mid and low
latitude geomagnetic activity is expected to continue at generally
Unsettled levels 21 Nov with isolated Minor Storm periods possible.
High latitudes can expect isolated Major Storm periods. A return
to mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions expected 22 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 Nov -27
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night,
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 Nov -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
22 Nov -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Nov -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 20 November
and is current for interval 21-22 November. Widespread depressions
in MUFs continued across the Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region
due to lack of solar ionisation. The arrival of a coronal hole
wind stream late on 19 Nov increased geomagnetic activity producing
a short-lived enhancement in ionospheric ionisation, particularly
evident as a 20% enhancement in mid-latitude MUFs after 0700
UT. This MUF enhancement is expected to be short lived with a
return to pre-coronal hole depressions from 21 Nov and for the
next three days. Expect degraded HF conditions 21 Nov due to
continuing enhanced geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Nov
Speed: 393 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 68900 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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