[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 20 10:35:42 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity continued to remain at very low
levels. The solar disk is spotless. The solar wind speed
gradually decreased from 400 km/s to 360 km/s by mid day
today and then showed a gradual rise to 440 km/s by around
23 UT. This increase in the solar wind speed seems to have
been happening due to the effect of a coronal hole that is
taking geoeffective position. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) remained very stable
and close to the normal value until around 1700UT. Bz has
now started to show minor to mild (upto around +/-5nT)
fluctuations on both sides of the normal value. The effect
of this coronal hole is expected to keep the solar wind
stream strengthened for the next three days. Solar activity
is expected to remain at very low levels during this period.
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at
1715UT on 19 Nov.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22211124
Darwin 5 21111123
Townsville 9 22211234
Learmonth 9 11101135
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 11100023
Hobart 4 11110123
Casey(Ant) 10 33321123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1200 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 12 Unsettled
21 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
22 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Due to the effect of a coronal hole the geomagnetic
activity is expected to rise to unsettled levels on 20
November and unsettled to active levels on 21 and 22 November.
Isolated minor storm periods may be possible at high latitudes
on 21 and 22 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal-poor Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
22 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Due to weakend ionosphere and expected rise in
gemagnetic activity levels from 20 to 22 November, HF
conditions may deteriorate during this period. Mild to
moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions
in MUFs are possible at low and mid latitudes and mild
to significant degradations and depressions possible
at high latitude circuits for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov -43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov -35 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Nov -40 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
22 Nov -40 20 to 40% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 18
November and is current for interval 19-20 November. Widespread
depressions in MUFs and degradations in HF conditions continue
across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar
ionisation. An anticipated rise in the geomagnetic activity
levels from 20 to 22 November is expected to further
contribute to the deterioration of HF conditions. Mild to
significant degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs may be observed across Aus/NZ regions for the next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 71100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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