[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 19 10:09:30 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low. The only numbered active
region on the disk (AR974) was quiet over the period. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed is now at
nominal levels and the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) relatively
stable. A recurrent coronal hole should rotate into geoeffective
position on 21 Nov increasing solar wind speed and IMF fluctuations.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22111212
Darwin 4 21111212
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 2 11001202
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 21100201
Hobart 3 12101201
Casey(Ant) 9 33-32211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 3220 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 3 Quiet
20 Nov 3 Quiet
21 Nov 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet over the UT
day (18 Nov). Expect Quiet geomagnetic conditions next 2 days
(19-20 Nov). A recurrent coronal hole wind stream will likely
raise geomagnetic activity levels 21 Nov to generally Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov -39
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
20 Nov -30 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
21 Nov -15 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Widespread depressions in MUFs continue across Australian/
NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar ionisation. Particularly
severe depressions of up to 45% were again observed at some equatorial
stations. Expect these conditions to continue next two days.
An easing of depressions possible day three (21 Nov) although
generally low MUFs are expected until a pick-up in solar ionisation.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 101000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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