[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 18 10:06:09 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Newly-formed spot region 974 (N12W18) produced a minor
flare in the period and was reclassified a DAO beta-gamma spot
group. There are no other spot regions on the disk and solar
activity is expected to remain very low. The solar wind speed
declined further to 400km/s. Some sustained periods of southwards
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) early in the UT day likely
enhanced merging with the geomagnetic field at high latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22322222
Darwin 6 22212222
Townsville 8 22322222
Learmonth 7 22322221
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 21322111
Hobart 7 22322211
Casey(Ant) 13 4-432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1012 2113
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 4 Quiet
19 Nov 3 Quiet
20 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day (17 Nov). Periods of Active to Minor Storm conditions
were observed at high latitudes early in the UT day as a result
of periods of sustained southwards IMF and enhanced magnetic
field merging. Expect generally Quiet geomagnetic conditions
next 3 days (18-20 Nov).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 40% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
20 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November. Widespread depressions
in MUFs continue across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due
to lack of solar ionisation. Particularly severe depressions
of up to 45% were again observed at some equatorial stations
overnight. Expect regional ionosphere to remain generally depressed
for at least next two days with continuing large fluctuations
in MUFs at equatorial and N.Aus locations.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 557 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 179000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list