[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 17 10:32:30 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 NOVEMBER - 19 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Nov: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Nov 18 Nov 19 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: A newly-formed spot region at N12W06 has been classified
a BXO beta with three spots. There are no other spot regions
on the disk and solar activity is Very Low. Solar wind speed
remains elevated near 500km/s but is declining. The Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF) has been relatively stable over the UT day.
Since ~2030UT the IMF has been persistently southwards (~ 3 hours)
likely enhancing merging with the geomagnetic field at high latitudes.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 Nov : A K
Australian Region 7 22222222
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 8 11223223
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 22212212
Hobart 7 12223212
Casey(Ant) 10 ---32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1100 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Nov 5 Quiet
18 Nov 5 Quiet
19 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day (16 Nov) in continuing response to a recurrent
coronal hole solar wind stream. Periods of Active to Minor Storm
conditions were observed at high latitudes. Expect generally
Quiet geomagnetic conditions at most latitudes next 3 days (17-19
Nov). The high latitude regions may experience some periods of
Minor Storm conditions 17 Nov as a result of sustained southwards
IMF and enhanced merging late 16 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Nov -25
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Nov -20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov -15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
19 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November. Widespread depressions
in MUFs continue across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due
to lack of solar ionisation. Particularly severe depressions
of up to 45% were again observed at some equatorial stations
overnight. Expect regional ionosphere to remain depressed for
at least next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Nov
Speed: 604 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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