[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 16 10:10:34 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed remains
elevated near 600km/s due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
Expect the solar wind speed to gradually decline over the next
2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 22212222
Darwin 6 22112222
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 10 32223232
Camden - --------
Canberra 6 12212222
Hobart 5 22112212
Casey(Ant) 14 -4--2233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 7 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3312 2311
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 5 Quiet
17 Nov 3 Quiet
18 Nov 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day (15 Nov) in continuing response to a recurrent
coronal hole solar wind stream. Periods of Active conditions
were observed at high latitudes. Expect generally Quiet geomagnetic
conditions at most latitudes next 3 days (16-18 Nov). The high
latitude regions may experience some periods of Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions 16 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov -31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by up to 15% during local day,
Depressed by up to 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov -26 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
17 Nov -26 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
18 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 15 November
and is current for interval 16-18 November. Widespread depressions
in MUFs continue across Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due
to lack of solar ionisation. Depressions of up to 45% were observed
at some equatorial stations overnight. Expect regional ionosphere
to remain depressed for at least next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 649 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 215000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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