[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 22 10:39:25 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and solar activity
continued to remain at very low levels today as well. As
anticipated earlier, the solar wind stream is still going
strong due to the effect of the coronal hole. The effect of
this coronal hole seems to be weakening now as the solar wind
speed showed a gradual decrease from 700 km/s to 570 km/s
during the second half of the UT day today. The north-south
component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) stayed
close to the normal value during the second half of the UT
day after showing minor fluctuations on both sides of the
normal value during the first half of the day. The effect
of this coronal hole is expected to further decline over
the next 24 hours. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 23343222
Darwin 9 22333211
Townsville 11 23333222
Learmonth 13 23343322
Camden 7 2-------
Canberra 12 23343221
Hobart 13 23443211
Casey(Ant) 15 4-433222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 60 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 28 2234 6533
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 13 Unsettled to Active
23 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity is expected to gradually
decline to unsettled and then to quiet levels over the next
two days as the effect of coronal hole induced solar wind
stream diminishes over this period. The activity is expected
to remain at quiet levels on the third day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Poor-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions may show minor to significant
degradations on 22 and at times on 23 November especially
at mid and high latitude locations. Periods of minor to
significant depressions may be observed on mid and high
latitude locations with some possibility of degrdations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs on low latitudes
during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov -82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 45% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 45% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov -45 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
23 Nov -40 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
24 Nov -30 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on
20 November and is current for interval 21-22 November.
Widespread depressions in MUFs continued across the
Australian/ NZ/SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar
ionisation. Minor to significant degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be expected across Aus/NZ regions
for the next two days. Some improvements in conditions may be
possible on 24 November as the currently going on coronal hole
effect is expected to be over by then.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 469 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 52800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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