[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 13 10:06:22 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless. The solar wind was
showing some large fluctuations late in the UT day (12 Nov)
characteristic of onset of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Expect unsettled and elevated solar wind conditions next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21111222
Darwin 6 21111223
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 7 11121224
Camden 3 11110122
Canberra 4 21111122
Hobart 4 21110222
Casey(Ant) 9 33321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 1 0010 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 15 Unsettled to active
14 Nov 15 Unsettled
15 Nov 8 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet 12 Nov becoming
Unsettled late in the UT day with the onset of a coronal hole
wind stream, the geomagnetic effects of which are expected to
continue for the next 3 days. Mostly Unsettled to Active conditions
forecast 13 Nov. Isolated Minor Storm conditions possible at
high latitudes. Unsettled conditions forecast for 14 Nov with
a return to mostly Quiet conditions thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov -35
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov -24 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
14 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 11 November
and is current for interval 12-14 November. Widespread depressions
in MUFs continue across Australian/NZ/ SW-Pacific region due
to lack of solar ionisation. Equatorial and N.Aus regions
particularly affected. Expect regional ionosphere to remain heavily
depressed for next three days at least.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 397 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 73800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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