[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 14 10:31:31 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The solar disk remains spotless and the solar
activity remained at very low levels over the last 24 hours.
The solar wind speed showed a gradual increase from 400 km/s
to 630 km/s by 2300UT today due to the effect of a recurrent
coronal hole. The solar wind stream is expected to stay strong
for the next three days. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed mild to moderate
(upto around +/- 10nT) fluctuations on both sides of the normal
value almost the whole day today. Solar activity is expected
to remain at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 12 33233223
Darwin 12 33233223
Townsville 13 33233233
Learmonth 14 33333233
Camden 11 33223223
Canberra 11 -3323223
Hobart 11 33223223
Casey(Ant) 17 4--43233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 15 Unsettled to active on most locations.
15 Nov 15 Unsettled to active on most locations.
16 Nov 10 Unsettled, turning quiet.
COMMENT: The anticipated effect of the coronal hole has
started to eventuate. Geomagnetic activity has shown some
rise on most locations. The effect of this coronal hole
induced high speed solar wind stream may raise the activity
to active levels on 14 and 15 November. The activity
level is expected to gradually decline thereafter.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-poor Normal-fair Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
15 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs are expected on 14 and 15 November
due to an expected rise in geomagnetic activity levels on
these days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov -22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with periods of depressions and degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov -20 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
15 Nov -22 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Nov -12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on
11 November and is current for interval 12-14 November.
Widespread depressions in MUFs continue across Australian/NZ/
SW-Pacific region due to lack of solar ionisation. Equatorial
and N.Aus regions particularly affected. Expect regional
ionosphere to remain depressed for next two to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 379 km/sec Density: 6.1 p/cc Temp: 42500 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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