[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 12 10:33:38 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar wind was ~400 km/s for most of the UT day and
has declined to ~370 km/sec in the last 6 hours. Solar wind speed
is expected to increase at Earth on 13 Nov as a coronal hole
rotates into geoeffective position. IMF Bz fluctuated north /south
with no sustained southwards turnings of substantial magnitude,
but a northward excursion occurred 13-19UT. The solar disk remains
spotless. Nil X-ray events.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 22111111
Darwin 4 21112112
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 4 11122012
Camden 2 11111011
Canberra 3 12111011
Hobart 2 12111001
Casey(Ant) 7 3-321111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1012 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 4 Quiet
13 Nov 7 Quiet
14 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic field generally quiet. No substantial IMF
Bz southwards to disturb polar latitudes with reconnection. Coronal
hole high speed solar wind stream (HSSWS) expected to take effect
13 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
14 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
COMMENT: MUFs remain depressed compared with monthly average,
particularly in the southern hemisphere. Expect to be similarly
low for at least 2 days with geomagnetic activity from impending
coronal hole perhaps slightly elevating MUFs around 14 Nov.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov -26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 15-25% depressed.
13 Nov -20 Near predicted monthly values to 15-25% depressed.
14 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values to 10-20% depressed.
COMMENT: General and greater than expected depressions in MUFs
still observed across Australian/NZ/SW-Pacific region due to
lack of solar ionisation. SW Pacific region particularly affected.
PNG sonde coverage is out but MUFs assumed similarly affected.
Expect to remain heavily depressed for next two days at least.
Onset of coronal hole elevated solar wind speed expected 13 Nov
should energise geomagnetic field and the effect on such a weak
ionosphere may be to raise ionisation and MUFs around 14 Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 428 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 114000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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