[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 November 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 11 10:11:44 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z NOVEMBER 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 NOVEMBER - 13 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Nov: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Nov 12 Nov 13 Nov
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The solar wind has ranged from 390 to 460 km/s over
the last 24 hours and is presently 400 km/s. The Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field has fluctuated between +/-5
nT. The solar disk is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22222201
Camden 5 22222101
Canberra 4 21222110
Hobart 4 22222100
Casey(Ant) 12 4-432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Nov 4 Quiet
12 Nov 4 Quiet
13 Nov 4 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
13 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Nov -18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15%.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 10% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 11
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
12 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
13 Nov -10 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: General depressions in MUFs still observed across
Australian/NZ region due to lack of solar ionising EUV.
Sonde coverage across PNG and Pacific is out but MUFs assumed
similarly affected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Nov
Speed: 348 km/sec Density: 3.1 p/cc Temp: 72600 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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