[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 21 09:50:18 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Spot region 956 (N02W19) again produced some B-class Xray flares,
the most significant of which was a B6.7 at 20/0556UT. Due to
the unavailability of SOHO LASCO imagery it remains unclear whether
the solar events that occurred on 19 May were associated with
a CME. The estimated arrival time of any shocks associated with
this activity is the second half of 21 May although the magnitude
of the shock would be expected to be small. Solar wind speeds
remain elevated (currently 550km/s) but in decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22121112
Darwin 5 22121112
Townsville 8 32222222
Learmonth 7 32122122
Camden 4 21121111
Canberra 4 21120112
Hobart 5 21131111
Casey(Ant) 8 3-321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 15 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12 2332 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 18 active
22 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled
over the UT day. Isolated Active periods were observed at high
latitude stations. There is the chance of a shock arrival in
the solar wind sometime in the second half of the UT day which
may produce geomagnetic activity to Active levels. This is related
to solar flare activity on 19 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal-Fair Fair
22 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Frequencies were generally near predicted monthly values
20 May, apart from some minor MUF depressions in the PNG/Niue
region overnight. Spread-F was observed in some S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic
stations likely in response to elevated geomagnetic activity.
These conditions are expected to continue 21-22 May. MUF depressions
possible 23 May if the expected geomagnetic activity eventuates
21-22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 14 near predicted monthly values
22 May 12 near predicted monthly values
23 May 6 Near predicted monthly values / Depressed by
10%.
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 20 May. Periods of
Spread-F were again observed at mid-high latitude stations.
Equatorial stations suffered some MUF depressions overnight.
HF conditions are expected to be much the same 21 May with
minor MUF depressions at low latitudes and further Spread-F
possible at mid-high latitudes. Expect mostly normal HF
conditions 22 May. MUF depressions possible 23 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 604 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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