[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 22 09:49:12 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Spot region 956 (N04W31) again produced some B-class Xray flares.
SOHO LASCO imagery shows the B-class flares that occurred on
19/1302UT and 20/0556UT May were associated with weak
Earthward-directed CMEs. Solar wind shocks from these events
should arrive sometime on 22 May although the shock magnitude is
expected to be small. The solar wind speed has been steadily
declining and is currently 450km/s. A recurrent coronal hole is
approaching central meridian and should move into geoeffective
position on 25 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 4 22111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 5 22111222
Learmonth 6 22021223
Camden 2 21000111
Canberra 2 22000101
Hobart 1 11001101
Casey(Ant) 6 23211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 3211 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 12 Unsettled
23 May 5 Quiet
24 May 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. The
expected solar wind shock from the weak CME on 19/1302UT did
not arrive but may be expected to arrive today (22 May). The
shock is expected to be small but could produce generally Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions with isolated Active periods on arrival.
Expect a return to mostly Quiet levels 23-24 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal
24 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Frequencies were generally near predicted monthly values
21 May, apart from up to 20% MUF depressions in the Equatorial
PNG/Niue region overnight. Spread-F was observed in some
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic stations. Expect frequencies to be mostly near
predicted monthly values 22 May. Some MUF depressions possible 23
May if the expected geomagnetic activity eventuates 22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% over UT day.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 18 near predicted monthly values
23 May 12 near predicted monthly values
24 May 12 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 21 May at mid latitudes.
Periods of Spread-F were again observed at mid-high latitude
stations. Equatorial stations suffered 20% MUF depressions. HF
conditions are expected to be mostly normal 22 May. Degraded
HF conditions possible at high latitudes. Some MUF depressions
possible 23 May if the expected geomagnetic activity eventuates
22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 589 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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