[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 20 09:42:58 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Very Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours. 
Spot region 956 (N03W07) produced some B-class Xray flares, the 
most significant of which was a B9.5 at 19/1302UT. A disappearing 
solar filament was observed in this region at 19/1231UT and a 
Type II radio sweep with speed 882km/s at 19/1252UT. SOHO LASCO 
imagery is not yet available for this period to confirm the CME. 
This will be confirmed or otherwise in tomorrow's solar and
geophysical report. Solar wind speeds remain elevated (currently 
620km/s) however the main geoeffective part of the coronal hole 
wind stream has passed and solar wind parameters are expected to 
gradually return to normal levels over the next two days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 19 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22222322
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville           9   23222322
      Learmonth           11   23323322
      Camden               6   22222221
      Canberra             8   22232321
      Hobart               8   32232221
      Casey(Ant)          13   33333--2
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              83   (Minor storm)
      Canberra            66   (Active)
      Hobart              79   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   3244 4333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 May     6    Quiet 
22 May     3    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was generally Quiet to Unsettled 
over the UT day in response to a coronal hole wind stream. Isolated 
Active periods were observed at high latitudes stations. The 
main geoeffective edge of the coronal hole wind stream has passed 
and the geomagnetic field is expected to settle back to Quiet 
conditions by 21 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Frequencies were generally near predicted monthly values 
19 May, apart from some minor MUF depressions in the PNG/Niue 
region overnight. Spread-F was observed in some S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic 
stations likely related to enhanced geomagnetic activity. These 
conditions are expected to continue 20 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    16    near predicted monthly values 
21 May    12    Near predicted monthly values 
22 May    12    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal 19 May. Some periods 
of Spread-F were observed at mid-high latitude stations. Equatorial 
stations suffered some minor MUF depressions. HF conditions are 
expected to be much the same 20 May with minor MUF depressions 
at low latitudes and further Spread-F possible at mid-high latitudes. 
Expect mostly normal HF conditions 21 May. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 538 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   243000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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