[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 19 09:30:35 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 May 20 May 21 May
Activity Low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours.
Spot region 956 (N02E10) remains large but has simplified in
magnetic complexity and flare probability has decreased. Solar
activity is expected to be low today (19 May) and Very Low 20-21
May. The high speed solar wind stream related to the coronal
hole currently located west of central meridian arrived early
in the UT day 18 May raising solar wind speed, IMF, density and
turbulence. The main geoeffective part of the coronal hole wind
stream has now passed and solar wind parameters are expected
to gradually return to normal levels over the next two days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet to Unsettled
with isolated Active periods.
Estimated Indices 18 May : A K
Australian Region 11 22343222
Darwin 10 22333222
Townsville 15 23443322
Learmonth 21 23454333
Camden 9 12333222
Canberra 10 12343221
Hobart 8 11332222
Casey(Ant) 13 23333242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 35 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1211 1123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 May 6 Quiet
21 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field responded to the arrival early
in the UT day (18 May) of a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
Conditions were mostly Quiet-Unsettled with isolated Active periods,
predominantly at high latitudes. The leading (geoeffective) edge
of the coronal hole wind stream has now passed and the geomagnetic
field is expected to settle back to Quiet-Unsettled conditions
19 May, returning to mostly Quiet 20-21 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values
to enhanced 19 May, particularly in the N.Aus/PNG/Niue regions.
Minor depressions expected 20 May in the Antarctic regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 May 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 May 24 about 10% above predicted monthly values
20 May 10 near predicted monthly values
21 May 12 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal 19 May.
MUF enhancements possible 19 May particularly at equatorial and
low latitudes. Minor MUF depressions may occur at high latitudes
20 May. Expect mostly normal HF conditions 21 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 0%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 15800 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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