[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 18 09:26:49 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 May 19 May 20 May
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the past 24 hours with
the only flares being two B-class from spot region 956 (N03E24).
This region remains large and magnetically complex and has the
potential to produce C-class or isolated M-class flares over
the next 24 hours. Flaring from the other two spot groups on
the visibile disk (AR955, AR957) is unlikely. A small equatorial
coronal hole is currently located west of central meridian the
effects of which are expected to arrive on May 19.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111112
Darwin 4 21111112
Townsville 6 12212222
Learmonth 4 11112112
Camden 1 00001011
Canberra 0 00001001
Hobart 1 00101111
Casey(Ant) 5 12212122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1111 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 May 3 Quiet
19 May 10 Quiet to unsettled
20 May 16 Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was very quiet over the UT day
and is expected to be quiet for the next 24 hours (18 May), however
there is a small chance that a CME observed on 15 May had an
Earthward-directed component which could produce an isolated
period of Unsettled-Active conditions early on 18 May. A widespread
increase in geomagnetic activity is likely on 19 May, continuing
into 20 May due to the arrival of a high speed coronal hole wind
stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 May Normal Normal Normal
19 May Normal Normal Normal
20 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Frequencies should be near predicted monthly values
18 May and enhanced 19 May, particularly in the N.Aus/PNG/Niue
regions. Minor depressions expected 20 May in response to enhanced
geomagnetic activity, particularly in the S.Aus/NZ/ Antarctic
regions. SWFs possible 18 May in the sunlit hemisphere.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 May 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 May 14 near predicted monthly values
19 May 24 about 10% above predicted monthly values
20 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be normal 18 May. MUF
enhancements possible 19 May particularly at equatorial and low
latitudes. Minor MUF depressions may occur 20 May in response
to enhanced geomagnetic activity, particularly at mid-high
latitudes. SWFs possible 18 May in the sunlit hemisphere.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 60100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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