[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 12 09:08:13 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 May 13 May 14 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: AR955 is the only spot group visible and although moderately
sized it is not expected to produce significant flares in the
next day or so. Solar wind speed declined sharply near the start
of the UT day from approximately 440km/s to 400km/s and should
continue to fall to around 350km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic was northward most of the day fluctuating between +3/-2
nT, so coupling with the geomagnetic field should have been weak.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 12111111
Townsville 6 12222222
Learmonth 6 31122121
Camden 1 01011011
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 11011000
Casey(Ant) 5 22221121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 May 3 Quiet
13 May 2 Quiet
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 May 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 May 14 near predicted monthly values
13 May 14 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 8 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions to prevail over the
next several days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 454 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 57300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list