[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May:  72/8

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Very low  to low   Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: AR955 is the only spot group visible and although moderately 
sized it is not expected to produce significant flares in the 
next day or so. Solar wind speed declined sharply near the start 
of the UT day from approximately 440km/s to 400km/s and should 
continue to fall to around 350km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic was northward most of the day fluctuating between +3/-2 
nT, so coupling with the geomagnetic field should have been weak. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Townsville           6   12222222
      Learmonth            6   31122121
      Camden               1   01011011
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               1   11011000
      Casey(Ant)           5   22221121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   1000 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May     3    Quiet 
13 May     2    Quiet 
14 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few 
days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

Predicted Monthly T index for May:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    14    near predicted monthly values 
13 May    14    Near predicted monthly values 
14 May     8    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions to prevail over the 
next several days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 454 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    57300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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