[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:06:52 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: AR955 is the only spot group visible and over the
last 24hrs the spots have diminished 50% in area. Over this same
period the solar wind decreased from 400 to 340 km/s and will
most likely remain around this level for the next several days.
Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic fluctuated between
+/-2 nT, so coupling with the geomagnetic field should have been
weak.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21111111
Darwin 3 21111111
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 4 22220101
Camden 1 11000001
Canberra 1 11000001
Hobart 2 11011101
Casey(Ant) 4 22211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 2 Quiet
14 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal-fair Normal Normal
14 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days with possible mild depressions
at low latitudes today.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 10 near predicted monthly values
14 May 10 near predicted monthly values
15 May 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Expect near normal HF conditions to prevail over the
next several days with mild depressions possible in the equatorial
region today.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 415 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 45300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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