[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 11 09:28:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MAY 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Very low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: AR955 is the only spot group visible and although moderately
sized it is not expected to produce significant flares in the
next day or so. Solar wind speed declined sharply near the start
of the UT day from over 500km/s to 480km/s and slowly fell through
the day to near 420km/s. Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic
was northward most of the day, southward 15-19UT and then fluctuating
so coupling with the geomagnetic field should have been weak.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 3 11110121
Darwin 3 11111121
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 3 11100221
Camden 2 11010121
Canberra 1 10000021
Hobart 2 11010121
Casey(Ant) 6 22211132
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 52 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 1221 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 4 Quiet
12 May 5 Quiet
13 May 1 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions are expected for the next few
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly near predicted monthly
values over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night
extensive spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values
extensive spread F observed at night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 10 near predicted monthly values
12 May 10 near predicted monthly values
13 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs should be returning to near predicted monthly values
over the next few days. Extensive spread F observed at equatorial
and some more northerly Autralian sites, particularly at night.
Some spread F also observed along the eastern regions including
NZ, particularly at night. Strong sporadic E observed in the
south-east.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 587 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 108000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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