[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 22 10:32:10 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today. The
solar wind speed showed a gradual decrease from 310
to 270 km/s during the UT day today. The north-south
component (Bz) of the interplanetary magnetic field
remained close to the normal value almost the whole
day. Solar wind stream may be strengthened due to the
effect of a coronal hole that is expected to be
geoeffective from 22 to 25 March. The elongated shape
of the coronal hole, however, makes it difficult to
predict its time and extent of geoeffectiveness with
reasonable confidence. Solar activity is expected to
remain at very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11211101
Darwin 0 00------
Townsville 5 22212112
Learmonth 3 11112200
Camden 1 20100001
Canberra 2 12110000
Hobart 1 01110001
Casey(Ant) 5 13321100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 6 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
24 Mar 8 Quiet to unsettled, isolated active periods possible.
COMMENT: The effect of a high speed solar wind stream from
a coronal hole may raise the geomagnetic activity levels to
unsettled levels on 22, 23 and 24 March with the possibility
of isolated active periods on 23 and 24 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal to fair Normal Normal
23 Mar Normal to fair Normal Normal-Fair
24 Mar Normal to fair Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs may be observed at high latitude
locations on 23 and 24 March due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity on these days. The currently being
observed depressions in MUFs at low latitude may also
continue for the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 8 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions
at low latitudes may continue.
23 Mar 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to
mild depressions possible at low and high latitudes.
24 Mar 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values. Minor to
mild depressions possible at low and high latitudes.
COMMENT: Minor to mild degradations in HF conditions and
depressions in MUFs are possible at low latitudes for the
next three days. Similar depressions and degradations may
also be observed on high latitudes on 23 and 24 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 335 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 30700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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