[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 10 10:41:55 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Mar 11 Mar 12 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. A westward
directed CME observed during 7 March is not expected to be
geoeffective.
Solar wind speeds continued to decline over the past 24 hours
down to approximately 350 km/s. Solar wind speeds may again increase
12-13 March as the result of an anticipated high speed coronal
hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A K
Australian Region 4 11112121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22122222
Learmonth 3 11012121
Camden 1 01011011
Canberra 2 01001121
Hobart 4 12111121
Casey(Ant) 6 2-222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2200 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Mar 6 Quiet
11 Mar 6 Quiet
12 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet levels for the next two days, with active levels possible
12-13 March due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 9 March,
otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of slight depressions at times for 10 March and mild
depressions for 12-13 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times during 9
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of 5-10% depressions at times for 10 March and 5-15%
depressions for 12-13 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.60E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:29%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 460 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 55200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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