[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 9 10:50:46 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Mar 10 Mar 11 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: The visible solar disk is currently spotless. A westward
directed CME observed during 7 March is not expected to be
geoeffective.
Elevated solar wind speeds resulting from a recurrent coronal
hole have declined over the past 24 hours down to approximately
400 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22221121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 32210221
Camden 3 21111111
Canberra 3 22120011
Hobart 4 22121111
Casey(Ant) 7 2-321222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3343 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Mar 6 Quiet
11 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet levels for the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 8 March,
otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of slight depressions at times for 9 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 10%/near predicted monthly values
10 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times during 8
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of 5-10% depressions at times for 9 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Mar
Speed: 584 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 209000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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