[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 11 10:36:16 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds may increase 12-13 March as the result 
of an anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream. 




-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22211221
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   22221230
      Camden               3   11201121
      Canberra             3   10201121
      Hobart               5   11212221
      Casey(Ant)          10   23331232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 0012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     6    Quiet 
12 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
13 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly 
quiet levels for 11 March, with active levels possible 12-13 
March due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
12 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
13 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 10 March, 
otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions 
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the 
chance of slight to mild depressions at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar     5    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
12 Mar     5    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar     5    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times during 10 
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions 
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the 
chance of 5-15% depressions at times. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+08   (high fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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