[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 11 10:36:16 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speeds may increase 12-13 March as the result
of an anticipated high speed coronal hole wind stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22211221
Darwin - --------
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 22221230
Camden 3 11201121
Canberra 3 10201121
Hobart 5 11212221
Casey(Ant) 10 23331232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 0012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 6 Quiet
12 Mar 15 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
13 Mar 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet levels for 11 March, with active levels possible 12-13
March due to an anticipated coronal hole solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
12 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
13 Mar Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild depressions were observed at times during 10 March,
otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of slight to mild depressions at times.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
12 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
13 Mar 5 depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of 5-15% were observed at times during 10
March, otherwise HF conditions were mostly near normal. HF conditions
should be predominantly normal for the next few days with the
chance of 5-15% depressions at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:28%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 364 km/sec Density: 4.9 p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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