[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 6 10:14:25 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Mar             07 Mar             08 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
Although fluctuating between +/-6nT, the Bz component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly southward 
since ~05/0500UT. The solar wind speed ranged up to 460km/s over 
the UT day. Recurrence suggests this modest increase in solar 
wind speed will be maintained for the next 2 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   32232232
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          10   32232232
      Learmonth           10   22233232
      Canberra             7   21132222
      Casey(Ant)          14   4--32233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0011 1012     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Mar     6    Quiet 
08 Mar     3    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet-Unsettled levels yesterday 
(05 Mar) with isolated Active periods at high latitudes. The 
enhanced activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds 
and an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic field 
after 05/0500UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again 
be at Quiet-Unsettled levels today (06 Mar) returning to Quiet 
on 07 Mar. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Some 
strong MUF enhancements occurred at low latitudes. Similar conditions 
are expected today (06 Mar). 07 Mar may see some minor depressions 
in HF conditions at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Mar    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Mar    16    near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal for most locations in 
the Australian region. Variable MUF enhancements occurred in 
the Equatorial/PNG region over the UT day. These conditions are 
expected to continue today (06 Mar). Some minor depressions may 
occur in the Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 07 Mar in response 
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 370 km/sec  Density:    4.3 p/cc  Temp:    55300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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