[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 6 10:14:25 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 06 MARCH - 08 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
Although fluctuating between +/-6nT, the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has been predominantly southward
since ~05/0500UT. The solar wind speed ranged up to 460km/s over
the UT day. Recurrence suggests this modest increase in solar
wind speed will be maintained for the next 2 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 05 Mar : A K
Australian Region 10 32232232
Darwin - --------
Townsville 10 32232232
Learmonth 10 22233232
Canberra 7 21132222
Casey(Ant) 14 4--32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 0011 1012
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 6 Quiet
08 Mar 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet-Unsettled levels yesterday
(05 Mar) with isolated Active periods at high latitudes. The
enhanced activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds
and an extended period of southward interplanetary magnetic field
after 05/0500UT. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again
be at Quiet-Unsettled levels today (06 Mar) returning to Quiet
on 07 Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Some
strong MUF enhancements occurred at low latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected today (06 Mar). 07 Mar may see some minor depressions
in HF conditions at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Mar 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Mar 16 near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal for most locations in
the Australian region. Variable MUF enhancements occurred in
the Equatorial/PNG region over the UT day. These conditions are
expected to continue today (06 Mar). Some minor depressions may
occur in the Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 07 Mar in response
to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Mar
Speed: 370 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 55300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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