[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 5 10:08:26 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has mostly
fluctuated between +/-5nT for the last 24 hours. The solar wind
speed ranged from 340-380km/s over the UT day. Recurrence suggests
a modest increase in solar wind speed over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 22222121
Darwin - --------
Townsville 6 22222121
Learmonth 5 12222021
Canberra 3 11211011
Casey(Ant) 9 23332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Mar 6 Quiet
06 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly at Quiet levels yesterday
(04 Mar) with the exception of some Unsettled conditions at high
latitudes 0400-1400 UT. Expect geomagnetic conditions to be mostly
Quiet today (05 Mar) and Quiet-Unsettled on 06 Mar in response
to increased solar wind speed. Conditions should return to Quiet
on 07 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal
06 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Some
strong MUF enhancements occurred at low latitudes. Similar conditions
are expected today (05 Mar). 06 Mar and 07 Mar may see some minor
depressions in HF conditions, particularly at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Mar 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Near predicted monthly values / variably enhanced at low
latitudes.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Mar 15 near predicted monthly values
06 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
07 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal for most locations in
the Australian region. Variable MUF enhancements occurred in
the Equatorial/PNG region over the UT day. These conditions are
expected to continue today (05 Mar). Some minor depressions may
occur 06 Mar and 07 Mar in response to Unsettled geomagnetic
conditions, particularly in the Antarctic and Southern Aus/NZ
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Mar
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 32400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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