[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    73/9               73/9               73/9

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field has mostly 
fluctuated between +/-3nT for the last 24 hours. The solar wind 
speed is nominal at 340km/s. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11111211
      Darwin               2   110-----
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            3   11111210
      Canberra             2   10101201
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1221 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar     3    Quiet 
05 Mar     4    Quiet 
06 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet levels yesterday (03 
Mar) with the exception of an isolated burst of high latitude 
(auroral) activity late in the previous UT day. Expect Quiet 
conditions to prevail next two days (04-05 Mar) with Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions possible on 06 Mar. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal. Some strong MUF
enhancements occurred at low latitudes, particularly over the 
local day. The ionosphere in the high latitude regions remained 
slightly depressed, conditions which are expected to continue 
next 3 days (04-06 Mar). HF conditions are expected to be 
mostly normal at all other latitudes. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Mar    18

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar    15    near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support was enhanced in the Equatorial/PNG 
and Northern Australian regions particularly during the local 
day, and normal in the Southern Australian/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
These conditions are expected to prevail next three days (04-06 
Mar). 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Mar
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    70400 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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