[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 3 09:32:54 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Mar 04 Mar 05 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with just the single minor
flare from AR944. Activity is expected to remain at very low
levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field
has mostly fluctuated between +/-2nT for the last 24 hours. The
solar wind speed declined from 600km/s to 400km/s over the period,
the tail end effects of a recurrent solar coronal hole, and should
return to nominal levels today.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11212122
Darwin 3 10211112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 4 11212121
Canberra 4 10212112
Casey(Ant) 8 23322121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 11 4332 3212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Mar 2 Quiet
04 Mar 4 Quiet
05 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity returned to Quiet levels yesterday
(02 Mar) as the Earth moved out of a high speed coronal wind
stream. Expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail next three
days (03-05 Mar).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong MUF
enhancements occurred at low latitudes, particularly over the
local night. The ionosphere in the high latitude regions remained
slightly depressed, conditions which are expected to continue
next 3 days (03-05 Mar). HF conditions are expected to be mostly
normal at all other latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
near predicted monthly values
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
05 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong
MUF enhancements occurred in the equatorial/PNG region over the
local night. The ionosphere in the Southern Australian and Antarctic
regions was slightly depressed, particularly during the local
day. These conditions are expected to prevail next three days
(03-05 Mar).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:15%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Mar
Speed: 607 km/sec Density: 2.4 p/cc Temp: 145000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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