[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 2 10:30:57 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels
over the next several days. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field has mostly fluctuated between +/-5nT for the last
24 hours. The solar wind speed declined to 580km/s over the period,
remaining elevated due to a recurrent solar coronal hole. Solar
wind speeds are expected to remain elevated but slowly decline
over the next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 32323211
Darwin 6 22222-02
Townsville 9 32223321
Learmonth 9 32323211
Canberra 7 22323201
Casey(Ant) 12 3-433211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 14 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 23 3554 3333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 5 Quiet
03 Mar 5 Quiet
04 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: A recurrent coronal hole remains in geoeffective position
producing yesterday's (01 Mar) unsettled geomagnetic conditions.
Active geomagnetic conditions were observed at high latitudes.
Expect geomagnetic activity to return to Quiet levels today (02
Mar) and tomorrow with isolated periods of enhanced activity
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Despite increased geomagnetic activity, ionospheric
conditions remained mostly normal. Strong enhancements again
occurred in the equatorial/PNG region over the local night. Minor
depressions occurred over the Antarctic and Southern Australian
regions. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail in the
Australian region with further equatorial enhancements likely
and minor depressions in the Southern Australian and Antarctic
regions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Variable enhancements to 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by up to 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar 12 Near predicted monthly values / variable enhancements
at equatorial latitudes
03 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions remain mostly normal. Some strong enhancements
occurred at low latitudes, particularly over the local night.
Minor depressions occurred at high latitudes due to enhanced
geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly normal HF conditions to prevail
with further equatorial enhancements and minor high latitude
depressions likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 641 km/sec Density: 3.4 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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