[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 7 10:35:05 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.
The solar wind speed increased to just under 600km/s over the
UT day as the Earth entered a high speed coronal hole wind stream.
Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the next 2-3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet-Unsettled with
an isolated active period 11-13UT.
Estimated Indices 06 Mar : A K
Australian Region 16 34443212
Darwin - --------
Townsville 12 23343222
Learmonth 16 24353212
Canberra 12 33343202
Casey(Ant) 18 34533123
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar :
Darwin NA
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 3003 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Mar 6 Quiet
09 Mar 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet-Unsettled levels yesterday
(06 Mar) with an isolated Active period 06/1100-1300UT. The enhanced
activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds resulting
from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again
be at Quiet-Unsettled levels today (07 Mar) returning to Quiet
on 08 Mar. Isolated active periods are possible 07 Mar, particularly
if the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward for an extended
period (>2 hours).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Mar Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Fair
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Some
strong MUF enhancements occurred at mid-low latitudes. HF
conditions are expected to be mostly normal today (07 Mar) with
a chance of minor depressions in response to Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions, particularly at mid-high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Mar 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Enhanced by 30% 04-08UT (local day).
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 10
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Mar 10 near predicted monthly values
09 Mar 16 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal during the day (06 Mar)
for most locations in the Australian region. Northern Australian
and Equatorial regions showed some MUF depressions overnight. A
strong MUF enhancement occurred in the Equatorial/PNG/Northern
Australian region ~0400-0800UT and a smaller enhancement
normal today (07 Mar). Minor MUF depressions may occur 07 Mar in
response to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, particularly in
the Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec Density: 8.1 p/cc Temp: 98800 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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