[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 7 10:35:05 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels. 
The solar wind speed increased to just under 600km/s over the 
UT day as the Earth entered a high speed coronal hole wind stream. 
Elevated solar wind speeds are expected for the next 2-3 days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet-Unsettled with
an isolated active period 11-13UT. 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region      16   34443212
      Darwin               -   --------
      Townsville          12   23343222
      Learmonth           16   24353212
      Canberra            12   33343202
      Casey(Ant)          18   34533123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Mar : 
      Darwin              NA
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3003 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Mar     6    Quiet 
09 Mar     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was at Quiet-Unsettled levels yesterday 
(06 Mar) with an isolated Active period 06/1100-1300UT. The enhanced 
activity was in response to elevated solar wind speeds resulting 
from a coronal hole. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to again 
be at Quiet-Unsettled levels today (07 Mar) returning to Quiet 
on 08 Mar. Isolated active periods are possible 07 Mar, particularly 
if the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward for an extended 
period (>2 hours). 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Fair          
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal over the UT day. Some 
strong MUF enhancements occurred at mid-low latitudes. HF 
conditions are expected to be mostly normal today (07 Mar) with 
a chance of minor depressions in response to Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions, particularly at mid-high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Mar    17

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Enhanced by 30% 04-08UT (local day). 
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March:  10

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar    10    near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar    16    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric support was normal during the day (06 Mar) 
for most locations in the Australian region. Northern Australian 
and Equatorial regions showed some MUF depressions overnight. A 
strong MUF enhancement occurred in the Equatorial/PNG/Northern 
Australian region ~0400-0800UT and a smaller enhancement 
normal today (07 Mar). Minor MUF depressions may occur 07 Mar in 
response to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions, particularly in 
the Southern Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Mar
Speed: 422 km/sec  Density:    8.1 p/cc  Temp:    98800 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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