[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 June 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 29 JUNE - 01 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jun:  Very low.

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jun:  75/13

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jun             30 Jun             01 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: New region 962 (S12, E67) may produce an isolated M 
class flare. The solar wind speed is currently around 370 km/s. 
The expected increase in solar wind speed due to the coronal 
hole has yet to occur. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jun: Quiet to unsettled.

Estimated Indices 28 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21113111
      Darwin               5   22112112
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            6   21123212
      Camden               4   2-113101
      Canberra             3   10013101
      Hobart               4   11113201
      Casey(Ant)           4   22112111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2220 1122     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jun    12    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active conditions. 
30 Jun     8    Quiet to unsettled.
01 Jul     5    Quiet to unsettled.

COMMENT: Expected increased levels of activity have so far not 
eventuated. Isolated active levels expected today. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
01 Jul      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to experience 
night time degradations due to spread F. 

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
28 Jun     7

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Darwin, near predicted
      values to 20% depressed 00-07 UT. Night spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values. Daytime spread F and
      night sporadic E observed at Casey.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values.
30 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values.
01 Jul     5    Near predicted monthly values.

COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at low latitudes. Spread 
F likely to degrade communications, particularly at night. 

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Jun
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    54000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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