[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jun 30 09:40:10 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 30 JUNE - 02 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jun: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Jun 01 Jul 02 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: A C1.1 flare occurred at 20:13 UT associated with Region
961. This region is likely to produce further C-class flares
with a slight chance of an M-class flare. Solar wind speed increased
abruptly from 350 to 550 km/s at around 17 UT. This was preceeded
by a 2 hour period of highly elevated solar wind density of around
50 p/cc. Bz also fluctuated between +/- 10 nT for several hours
at this time. This disturbance in the solar wind may have been
associated with the recent coronal hole or with a CME which
accompanied the C flare of 27 June. The solar wind has begun to
return to normal levels at the time of this report (23:30 UT) and
is expected to continue to do so.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 12111232
Darwin 5 221-----
Townsville 5 221-----
Learmonth 11 22222343
Camden 5 01111232
Canberra 5 11112132
Hobart 5 11111132
Casey(Ant) 8 22211233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 1111 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Jun 6 Quiet
01 Jul 5 Quiet
02 Jul 5 Quiet
COMMENT: A period of elevated solar wind speed between 17 UT
and 20 UT produced Unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Conditions
have returned to Quiet levels at the time of this report (23:30
UT) and are expected to continue at Quiet levels over the next
few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Jul Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies were slightly below normal
during local daylight hours at low and mid latitudes. Winter
hemisphere communications are likely to experience night time
degradations due to spread F.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Jun 12
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
01 Jul 16 near predicted monthly values
02 Jul 16 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions of around 20% were observed during local
daylight hours in Equatorial PNG, Pacific and Mainland Australia
regions. Spread F is likely to degrade communications, particularly
at night.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Jun
Speed: 368 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list