[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 28 09:30:36 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 28 JUNE - 30 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Jun:  Low

Flares: C1/1800 UT.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Jun             29 Jun             30 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: A C1 flare from unknown location occurred at 1800 UT. 
The solar wind speed is currently around 390 km/s. A coronal 
hole is nearing a geoeffective position and is expected to increase 
the solar wind speed later today and tomorrow. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 27 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22110211
      Darwin               4   22111211
      Townsville           6   22211222
      Learmonth            3   22210200
      Camden               2   20100101
      Canberra             2   21100200
      Hobart               2   11100200
      Casey(Ant)           6   23211211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5   1002 3122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Jun    14    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels. 
29 Jun     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled although an isolated 
                active period is possible. 
30 Jun     5    Quiet 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels expected today and possibly 29th 
due to a coronal hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
30 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to experience 
night time degradations due to spread F. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Jun     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E observed at
      Port Moresby 09-13 UT. Depressions to 30% observed at
      Vanimo 00-09 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      observed at Darwin and Learmonth 00-06 UT. Night
      spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with night spread F.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with spread F day and
      night.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Jun     5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
29 Jun    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
30 Jun    10    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at low latitudes. Spread 
F likely to degrade communications, particularly at night. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Jun
Speed: 392 km/sec  Density:    1.4 p/cc  Temp:    53300 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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