[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 27 09:31:02 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun: Very low.
Flares: None.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Jun 28 Jun 29 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Region 961 (S11,E60) remains magnetically simple. The
solar wind speed has declined to approximately 360 km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet.
Estimated Indices 26 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 11122111
Darwin 3 11112111
Townsville 6 22222122
Learmonth 4 21122111
Camden 2 11021010
Canberra 2 01022010
Hobart 3 10022111
Casey(Ant) 4 12212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 2100 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Jun 5 Quiet
28 Jun 14 Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels.
29 Jun 8 Mostly quiet to unsettled although an isolated
active period is possible.
COMMENT: Isolated active levels expected on 28th and possibly
29th due to a coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
28 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to experience
night time degradations due to spread F.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Jun -2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted values to 20% depressed. Night time
spread F observed. At Vanimo, MUFS were depressed
20-50% 00-13 UT with sporadic E obscuring the F region
from 14-20 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted values to 20% depressed. Night time
spread F observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted values to 15% depressed with night
time spread F.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with spread F and night
time sporadic E.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Jun 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
28 Jun 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
29 Jun 5 Mostly near predicted monthly values.
COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at all latitudes. Sporadic
E and spread F likely to degrade communications, particularly
at night.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 59000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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