[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 27 09:31:02 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 27 JUNE - 29 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Jun:  Very low.

Flares: None.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Jun:  71/6

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Jun             28 Jun             29 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Region 961 (S11,E60) remains magnetically simple. The 
solar wind speed has declined to approximately 360 km/s. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Jun: Quiet.

Estimated Indices 26 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11122111
      Darwin               3   11112111
      Townsville           6   22222122
      Learmonth            4   21122111
      Camden               2   11021010
      Canberra             2   01022010
      Hobart               3   10022111
      Casey(Ant)           4   12212111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              42   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart              39   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2100 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Jun     5    Quiet 
28 Jun    14    Quiet to unsettled with isolated active levels. 
29 Jun     8    Mostly quiet to unsettled although an isolated 
                active period is possible. 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels expected on 28th and possibly 
29th due to a coronal hole wind stream. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
28 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
29 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair   

COMMENT: Winter hemisphere communications likely to experience 
night time degradations due to spread F. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
26 Jun    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted values to 20% depressed. Night time
      spread F observed. At Vanimo, MUFS were depressed
      20-50% 00-13 UT with sporadic E obscuring the F region
      from 14-20 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted values to 20% depressed. Night time
      spread F observed.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted values to 15% depressed with night
      time spread F.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with spread F and night
      time sporadic E.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Jun     5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
28 Jun     5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 
29 Jun     5    Mostly near predicted monthly values. 

COMMENT: Depressions to 20% possible at all latitudes. Sporadic 
E and spread F likely to degrade communications, particularly 
at night. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Jun
Speed: 420 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    59000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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