[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 19 09:24:14 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 19 JUNE - 21 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Solar wind speed remained between 500 and 460 km/s for
most part of the UT day today. The north-south component
of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations
between +/- 4 nT almost the whole day today. The effect
of another recurrent coronal hole may result in moderate
to significant strengthning of the solar wind stream from
19 to 22 June. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Jun : A K
Australian Region 4 12111221
Darwin 4 12111221
Townsville 6 22221222
Learmonth 6 22122221
Camden 3 11111121
Canberra 3 11111121
Hobart 3 11111220
Casey(Ant) 8 12222241
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 6 1111 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Jun 12 Quiet to unsettled
20 Jun 15 Active
21 Jun 20 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
levels on 18 June. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole
may raise the geomagnetic activity to unsettled levels on
19 June and mostly active on 20 and 21 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations with some possibility of minor to moderate
degradations on high latitude circuits on 19 June. Minor to
moderate degradations in HF conditions and depressions in
MUFs may be observed at all location with the possibility of
significant degradations on high latitudes on 20 and 21 June
due to the possibility of enhancements in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Jun -0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day with periods of
significant degradations,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night with periods of
significant degradations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Jun 8 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 6 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Jun 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%.
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions with some possibility of
minor to mild degradations in the Sourthern Aus/NZ regions
on 19 June. Minor to moderate degradations and MUF depressions
may be observed on 20 and 21 June across Aus/NZ regions due
to the possibility of enhancements in geomagnetic activity
during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Jun
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 95500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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