[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 07

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 18 09:23:53 EST 2007


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  67/0

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well. 
Solar wind speed remained between 440 and 500 km/s almost 
the whole UT day today. The north-south component of the 
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations 
between +/- 5 nT for most part of the day today. The effect 
of another recurrent coronal hole may result in moderate 
to significant strengthning of the solar wind stream on 
19 and 20 June. Solar activity is expected to remain at 
very low levels for the next few days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22223111
      Darwin               5   22112212
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            6   12323110
      Camden               5   11123111
      Canberra             4   12113110
      Hobart               5   11123111
      Casey(Ant)           7   33222111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              56   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3211 3221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
19 Jun    12    Mostly unsettled, isloated active periods possible. 
20 Jun    15    Active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet 
levels with some periods of unsettled levels recorded 
on 17 June. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain 
mostly at quiet levels on 18 June with some possibility 
of isolated unsettled periods. Geomagnetic activity may 
be expected to increase on 19 and 20 June to unsettled to 
active levels due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
19 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
20 Jun      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
on most locations on 18 June. Minor to moderate degradations 
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed at 
high and some mid latitude locations on 19 and 20 June due 
to the possibility of enhancement in geomagnetic activity 
levels during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
17 Jun     5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Depressed by 25% to near predicted monthly 
      values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly
      values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly
      values during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
      periods of minor to significant degradations.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun    12    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jun    15    Near predicted monthly values 
20 Jun    10    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal 
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions on 18 June. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may 
be observed on 20 and possibly 19 June in the Southern Aus/NZ 
regions due to the possibility of enhancement in geomagnetic 
activity levels on these days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 493 km/sec  Density:    2.8 p/cc  Temp:    91600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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