[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 18 09:23:53 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun: 67/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Solar wind speed remained between 440 and 500 km/s almost
the whole UT day today. The north-south component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations
between +/- 5 nT for most part of the day today. The effect
of another recurrent coronal hole may result in moderate
to significant strengthning of the solar wind stream on
19 and 20 June. Solar activity is expected to remain at
very low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A K
Australian Region 6 22223111
Darwin 5 22112212
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 6 12323110
Camden 5 11123111
Canberra 4 12113110
Hobart 5 11123111
Casey(Ant) 7 33222111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 56 (Unsettled)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 32 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 7 3211 3221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jun 6 Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
19 Jun 12 Mostly unsettled, isloated active periods possible.
20 Jun 15 Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet
levels with some periods of unsettled levels recorded
on 17 June. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
mostly at quiet levels on 18 June with some possibility
of isolated unsettled periods. Geomagnetic activity may
be expected to increase on 19 and 20 June to unsettled to
active levels due to the effect of a recurrent coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jun Normal Normal Normal
19 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
on most locations on 18 June. Minor to moderate degradations
in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may be observed at
high and some mid latitude locations on 19 and 20 June due
to the possibility of enhancement in geomagnetic activity
levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jun 5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% to near predicted monthly
values during local day,
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly
values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% to near predicted monthly
values during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of minor to significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jun 12 Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun 10 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to remain mostly normal
in most parts of Aus/NZ regions on 18 June. Minor to moderate
degradations in HF conditions and depressions in MUFs may
be observed on 20 and possibly 19 June in the Southern Aus/NZ
regions due to the possibility of enhancement in geomagnetic
activity levels on these days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 91600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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