[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 20 09:31:48 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 20 JUNE - 22 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jun: 66/0
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Jun 21 Jun 22 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity remained very low today as well.
Solar wind speed remained between 430 and 460 km/s for
most part of the UT day today. The north-south component of
the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) showed fluctuations
between +/- 4 nT almost the whole day today. The effect of
another recurrent coronal hole may result in moderate to
significant strengthning of the solar wind stream from 20
to 22 June. Solar activity is expected to remain at very
low levels for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 5 22222210
Camden 4 12221101
Canberra 4 12222100
Hobart 3 11222100
Casey(Ant) 5 22221211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 45 (Unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 41 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1112 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Jun 12 Unsettled to active
21 Jun 18 Active
22 Jun 16 Unsettled to active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity remained mostly at quiet levels
on 19 June. The effect of a recurrent coronal hole may raise
the geomagnetic activity to unsettled to active levels on 20
and 22 June. Mostly active periods are expected on 21 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
21 Jun Normal-fair Fair Fair
22 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed on low and mid
latitude circuits from 20 to 22 June. Moderate to significant
degradations may be expected for high latitude locations
from 20 to 22 June due to the possibility of enhancement
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Jun 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day with periods of
degradations,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of significant degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Jun 8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
21 Jun 4 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%.
22 Jun 4 near predicted monthly values/depressed 05 to
15%
COMMENT: Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions
and depressions in MUFs may be observed across Aus/NZ regions
for the next three days due to the possibility of enhancements
in geomagnetic activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Jun
Speed: 475 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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