[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 June 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 12 JUNE - 14 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jun:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jun             13 Jun             14 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              70/5

COMMENT: The Solar wind has returned to approximately 320 km/s. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated 
between +/-1 nT over the last 24 hours. AR960 no longer has a 
complex magnetic field and it would be expected that the solar 
flare activity from this region will continue to be very low 
until it rotates onto the the far-side of the sun. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11110111
      Townsville           5   12211222
      Camden               0   01000001
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               1   10010111
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              22   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   3232 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jun     6    Quiet 
13 Jun     6    Quiet 
14 Jun    18    active 

COMMENT: On the 14th of June expect the geomagnetic field to 
range from unsettled to minor storm levels due to the solar wind 
effects of a recurring coranal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

COMMENT: On the 14th of June the geomagnetic field is likely to
become disturbed and may effect HF coditions.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Jun    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Noted sporadic E in the equatorial and northern Australian 
region, as well as antarctic region, otherwise expect normal 
HF conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Jun
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:    84000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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