[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 June 07

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 13 JUNE - 15 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jun:  70/5

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 Jun             14 Jun             15 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: The Solar wind remains around 320 km/s. The Bz component 
of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between +2/-4 
nT over the last 24 hours and was mostly southward. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 12 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   12111011
      Townsville           5   12211122
      Learmonth            -   --------
      Camden               1   11000010
      Canberra             1   01100010
      Hobart               1   10100010
      Casey(Ant)           4   1221111-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Camden               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 Jun     6    Quiet 
14 Jun    18    active 
15 Jun    12    Unsettled 

COMMENT: On the 14th of June expect the geomagnetic field to 
range from unsettled to minor storm levels due to the solar wind 
effects of a recurring coranal hole. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Jun      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
15 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

COMMENT: HF conditions may be slightly effected due to high speed 
solar wind effects on the geomagnetic field, commencing on 14 
June. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 Jun    15

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for June:   9

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 Jun    15    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jun    15    near predicted monthly values 
15 Jun    10    near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Due to the expected geomagnetic field disturbance on 
14 June, there may be a slight effect on HF conditions. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Jun
Speed: 372 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:    74300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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