[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 6 09:40:24 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 06 JUNE - 08 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jun: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jun: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Jun 07 Jun 08 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours with region
960 being the source of a two C-class flares. These being a C1.2
at 0423UT and a C6.6 at 1613UT. Solar wind speed began to decline,
from 460km/s at 0000UT to be 400km/s at the time of this report.
Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, fluctuated between
+/-2nT throughout the UT day. Chance of M-class flares over the
next few days from region 960, which has shown some signs of
decay but has retained its magnetic complexity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 11111111
Darwin 3 11111111
Townsville 6 22212212
Learmonth 2 11111101
Camden 0 01000001
Canberra 0 0-------
Hobart 1 21000100
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3311 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Jun 7 Quiet
07 Jun 7 Quiet
08 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet conditions are expected for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for all latitudes
with isolated disturbed periods. Similar conditions expected
for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Jun 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
08 Jun 10 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 3 June
and is current for interval 4-6 June (SWFs) . Mostly normal HF
conditons observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial and Southern
Australia/NZ regions with some isolated disturbed periods for
each. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days with
chance of isolated depressions for Southern AUS/NZ regions.
Possible SWF's due to increased solar activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Jun
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 121000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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