[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 June 07
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Jun 5 09:52:06 EST 2007
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JUNE 2007 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 05 JUNE - 07 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jun: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M8.9 0513UT probable all E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jun: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Jun 06 Jun 07 Jun
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours with
region 960 being the source of a M8.9 flare at 0513UT as well
as numerous B-class flares. Solar wind speed remains elevated
at at 460km/s. Bz, the north/south component of the IMF, fluctuated
between +/-4nT throughout the UT day. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain at elevated levels for the next 24 hours after which
it is expected to begin to decline. Further M-class flares with
the chance of a X-class flare (and associated proton event) are
possible over the next few days as active region 960 remains
magnetically complex.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jun: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Jun : A K
Australian Region 7 23222221
Darwin 7 23222121
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 10 33223321
Camden 4 12112121
Canberra 4 12112121
Hobart 4 12112111
Casey(Ant) 8 23222222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Camden 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 46 (Unsettled)
Hobart 74 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2211 1343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
06 Jun 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Jun 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field ranged from Quiet to Unsettled
levels over the last 24 hours. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 2 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Jun Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
06 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Jun Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed for low to mid
latitudes. Disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Similar
conditions expected for the next 2 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Jun 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for June: 9
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
06 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
07 Jun 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 14 was issued on 3 June
and is current for interval 4-6 June (SWFs) . Daytime depressed
conditons observed for Northern AUS/Equatorial regions. Normal
conditions observed for Southern Australia/NZ regions with nightime
enhancements. Disturbed conditions observed for Antarctic regions.
Similar conditions are expected for the next 2 days. Possible
SWF's due to increased solar activity. Slight chance of a proton
event and PCA.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Jun
Data unavailable at the time of report issuing.
(Courtesy Space Environment Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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